Ten years after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that split the country and triggered turmoil, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely split population where those defeated are resistant to losing and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Many are for or against the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has gone on in universities but very few government figures or advocates want to engage with even the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author endorses unity or the status quo. Both writes two essays that aim for impartiality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and societal figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass national emblems, levies, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate say they support unification but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent official who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will eventually lose but all factions has got important lessons to learn from the alternative positions."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the discussion, urged the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
